My comments are included in Arun Kakar’s article, May’s Record-Breaking $2.5 Billion Auction Week, Explained, published this week in Artsy:
“‘New collectors may find that they are entering a market of cautious growth,’ said advisor David Shapiro. ‘They will be wise to learn lessons from recent burst speculative market bubbles, and instead, to prioritize, as much as possible, purchases of characteristic works by artists with proven standing and strong institutional support.’”
Gearing Up: Trends and Insights in Collector Cars and Memorabilia
It was so much fun to participate yesterday in the Private Risk Management Association (PRMA) session "Gearing Up: Trends and Insights in Collector Cars and Memorabilia", timed to the Greenwich Concours, alongside fellow panelists David Kinney (publisher of the Hagerty price guide), Erin Haydon, ARM of Markel International, and Kunal Kohli of Private Client Select -- and expertly moderated by Ashley Mehyo of Distinguished Programs! It was a lively conversation about topics such as the distinguishing features of collector cars, recent market trends, changing risk characteristics, and claims. Thank you ORNARE for generously hosting the event!
So often we are bound to our specialties (love the British word "specialisms") that we don't get a chance to engage in such profitable dialogue across sectors, but conversations such as these are precisely what enrich our knowledge and sharpen our tools. It's especially valuable for those of us who work largely in the HNW + UHNW space, which is largely and perhaps increasingly defined by a cross-sector approach to collecting.
For comparative perspective, prices realized in the high end of the collector car market are broadly in league with those in the highest tranche of the art market, even if the volume of trade for ultra-valuable collector cars is not as robust as it is for a similar strata of fine art.
The highest price ever realized at auction for a collector car is $143 million for the Mercedes-Benz 300 SLR Uhlenhaut Coupé at RM Sotheby’s in 2022, over $90 million higher than than the 2nd highest auction record for a collector car. This price level would be exceptional even for fine art and yet, that year, Andy Warhol's "Shot Sage Blue Marilyn" fetched $195 million at Christie's, i.e., $52 million *more* than the Uhlenhaut Coupé.
In 2025, the second highest auction price was realized for a collector car when the Mercedes-Benz W196 R Streamliner sold for $53.9 million at RM Sotheby’s. That year six works of art sold publicly above that level.
We also discussed the high end of the market for automobilia. Just last week, a helmet worn by the late Ferrari driver Gilles Villeneuve in his last Formula One race sold for $1.25 million, a world record for a racing helmet. In 2023, a Musgo Gasoline advertising sign sold for $1.5 million (15x its low estimate). Seen within the context of the surging market for collectibles (comics, trading cards, sports and entertainment memorabilia, etc.), one has to reason to expect further growth in this market subsector.
$40M+ sales in the May 2026 auctions
In the May 2026 auctions held over the past two weeks, 12 lots sold for over $40 million each (two more than in the Nov. 2025 sales) for a cumulative total of $851,022,500 (including buyer's premium). All of these $40M+ works were created in the twentieth century, and all were sold either at Christie's or Sotheby's with third-party guarantees (or "irrevocable bids" in Sotheby's terminology), so a strong high end was a foregone conclusion heading into the sales. Among this group, auction records were set for set for Jackson Pollock (who led the season), Constantin Brancusi, Mark Rothko, and Joan Miró.
In my calculations, 87.6% of the totals for $40M+ lots were from estate property, including the three highest lots, an even more pronounced pattern than what we saw in the November 2025 auctions (74%), further demonstrating that fluctuations in overall season-to-season results often depend more on circumstance-driven changes in supply at the high end than on changes in market confidence. However, to hedge against that comment a bit, there can be an element of discretion in when to sell estate property, as for Newhouse, in which works have been released to market periodically over time; clearly, they felt emboldened to sell key works now, and did so to remarkable results.
The top 12 in descending order of price realized:
1. Jackson Pollock, Number 7A (1948): $181,185,000 at Christie's (*auction record)
2. Constantin Brancusi, Danaïde (ca. 1913): $107,585,000 at Christie's (*auction record)
3. Mark Rothko, No. 15 (Two Greens and Red Stripe) (1964): $98,385,000 at Christie's (*auction record)
4. Mark Rothko, Brown and Blacks in Reds (1957): $85,780,000 at Sotheby's
5. Joan Miró, Portrait de Madame K. (1924): $53,535,000 at Christie's (*auction record)
6. Jean-Michel Basquiat, Museum Security (Broadway Meltdown) (1983): $52,717,500 at Sotheby's
7. Henri Matisse, La Chaise lorraine (ca. 1919): $48,405,000 at Sotheby's
8. Pablo Picasso, Tête de femme (Fernande) (1909): $48,480,000 at Christie's
9. Roy Lichtenstein, Anxious Girl (1964): $46,060,000 at Christie's
10. Cy Twombly, Untitled (1961): $45,485,000 at Christie's
11. Pablo Picasso, Arlequin (Buste) (1909): $42,640,000 at Sotheby's
12. Pablo Picasso, Homme à la guitare (1913): $40,885,000 at Christie's
IUA/LMA Joint Specie Claims event
It was a pleasure speaking last week in London in the International Underwriting Association (IUA) /Lloyd’s Market Association (LMA) Joint Specie Event, alongside Grace Best-Devereux, with moderation by Aliette Fenton-Sharp, both from Sedgwick. My presentation gave an overview of art appraisal with particular focus on the criteria that appraisers use for assessing partial loss in value (LIV) when works of art are damaged. Factors such as location of damage, stability of restoration, visibility of restoration, prior damage, relative rarity, and condition of comparable works can significantly influence the percentage of LIV assessed. Following my portion, Grace presented on the procedural aspects of adjusting fine art claims, including fascinating examples from the field. Then, we had a lively conversation on these subjects, prompted by insightful audience questions.
The Art Market, Appraisals and Insurance: What Brokers Need to Know Now
Please join me for a webinar on April 29 at noon (ET), “The Art Market, Appraisals, and Insurance: What Brokers Need to Know Now,” presented by the Pennsylvania Chapter of the Private Risk Management Association (PRMA).
Here is the summary:
As the art market continues to evolve, so too does the landscape of risk, valuation, and coverage. Join David Shapiro, AAA, of David Shapiro Fine Art Appraisal + Advisory, for an insightful session that begins with an art-market update—highlighting key trends, sales, and shifts shaping collector behavior today. From there, we’ll explore why these changes matter for brokers, underwriters, and insureds alike, examining the critical “nuts and bolts” of fine art appraisal for insurance purposes. You’ll gain a deeper understanding of how value is defined, the nuances of different appraisal types, and how accurate valuations support better coverage and claims outcomes.
Key Art Market Trends: A Seminar for Cincinnati Agents
It was a pleasure giving this talk just now to underwriters at The Cincinnati Insurance Companies and their agents. Many thanks to Matthew Cluxton for organizing the seminar, and for everyone who shared their time. The presentation covered far-reaching ground including numerous new auction records ranging from Artemisia Gentileschi to Pokémon cards (and much in between), private auctions in the stratosphere, third-party guarantees, swings in the market for emerging art, and of course the insurance ramifications of market moves and best practices for appraisal (and reappraisal). It was a lively hour spent well!
Quote in Bloomberg Law
My comments are included in Bloomberg Law today, in Angélica Serrano-Román's article, "Bourbon, Monet, and Tax Credits Find a Niche Market in Bankruptcy" (link below). This is the passage:
Most recently, a Claude Monet ‘Water Lilies’ painting from the collection of bankrupt hedge fund manager George Weiss showed up on Inforuptcy, a subscription website for professionals and distressed-asset investors that scans court documents and sale motions from the government’s online docket system and converts them into listings. Think Craigslist, only for bankruptcy assets. [...]
It lacks the complexity seen in Monet’s more significant later paintings of ‘Water Lilies,’ said David Shapiro, an art adviser with experience appraising the collection of the Detroit Institute of Arts. They have richer color and “are more resolved paintings, with this painting looking more sketch-like by comparison,” he said.
As of late November, nine Monet paintings of ‘Water Lilies’ have sold at public auctions for more than $50 million, including buyer’s premium, he added.
The bankruptcy court ultimately approved the sale of Weiss’s Monet in October for $36.5 million. There were no competing bids after another deal fell through, when a potential buyer couldn’t secure funding.
The art world has crossed into bankruptcy before, most notably through Detroit’s “Grand Bargain,” launched to prohibit the sale of works from the then city-owned art institute to pay off debt and to help raise funds to protect pensions in 2014. [...]
PRMA blog post: The Art Market Is Moving Fast: Here’s Why Appraisals and Insurance Matter More Than Ever
Following my recent webinar, Private Risk Management Association (PRMA) summarized the program in a blog post, "The Art Market is Moving Fast: Here's Why Appraisals and Insurance Matter More Than Ever".
Their blog post covers topics in the presentation including:
-- A market of extremes
--The rise and fall of emerging artists
--The risk of underinsurance
--Appraisal standards
--The expanding world of collectibles
--The benefits of staying proactive
Drawing from the webinar, PRMA has also assembled an Art Market Volatility Watchlist, alerting brokers, underwriters, collectors, and their advisors to some key points regarding shifting values in the present market.
Recommendations in this Watchlist include the following, concerning what to look for in an appraisal report and when works of fine art should be reappraised for insurance purposes.
Shook, Hardy & Bacon: Art Law Bulletin: Art Basel Miami Beach: An Art Appraiser’s Perspective
It was a pleasure to contribute to the December 2025 edition of Shook, Hardy & Bacon's “Art Law Bulletin.” This feature, assembled by Channah M. Norman, Tristan L. Duncan, and Alicia J. Donahue, is titled Art Basel Miami Beach: An Art Appraiser’s Perspective. My contribution is as follows:
The Artsy Art Basel Miami Beach wrap article says that the highest sale at the fair was Andy Warhol’s “Muhammad Ali” (1977) for $18 million at the Lévy Gorvy booth, and ARTNews says that the most expensive work on offer at the fair was a 1979 untitled Joan Mitchell on offer from Richard Gray Gallery for $18.5 million, though the report from Art Basel itself states that David Zwirner sold its Mitchell, “Sunflowers” (1990-91), for $20 million.
In fact, none of the above were the highest offerings at the fair. Gagosian was offering Picasso’s “Surreal Boy with a Basket” (1939) for $22 million, and Van de Weghe was offering Jean-Michel Basquiat’s “Onion Gum” (1983) for $21.5 million. These were the highest asking prices that I observed at this edition of Art Basel.
To my knowledge, the press has not commented on whether the Picasso or the Basquiat sold at the fair, and indeed, this may never be known, considering that dealers, being protected by the Privacy Rule in the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, have no legal obligation to disclose any of their realized prices at art fairs or otherwise, even while local laws may require them to conspicuously publish asking prices at the point of exposure. Although dealers may offer information about realized prices to journalists or in exit surveys issued by a fair, doing so is voluntary. Consequently, reports of completed transactions at art fairs are necessarily approximate at best, unlike published results of sales at public auction, which offer clear indicators of the market.
Whether or not the most expensive works on offer at Art Basel found buyers that week, it is worth noting that even at this fair, which is the largest and generally considered the most significant U.S. art fair, the highest end of offerings capped out around $20 million, which could be considered within range for a major art fair, notwithstanding occasional higher outlier offerings. This level is considerably lower than the high end of the auction market.
By comparison, in the November 2025 marquee auctions in New York, 19 lots fetched prices in excess of $18 million each (including buyer's premium), among which 10 lots sold above $40 million. Among these, six lots sold above $50 million, namely three Klimt paintings, a van Gogh, a Rothko, and a Kahlo. Klimt’s “Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer” fetched $236.4 million at Sotheby’s, the second highest auction price ever realized for a work of art and the highest for a work of modern art at auction.
Adjacent to the fine art sphere, the high end of the auction market has continued to witness phenomenal results in December 2025, most notably the sale of a Fabergé egg for $30.2 million at Christie’s in London and the sale of François-Xavier Lalanne's Hippopotamus Bar for $31.4 million at Sotheby’s in New York, an all-time auction record for the design sector.
The soaring high end seen in November was in no small part driven by circumstance: among the top 10 lots in the November 2025 auctions, 75% of total sales (by value) comprised estate property, the timing of which is beyond anyone's control. However, there were also significant discretionary sales among the highest ($18 million+) tier, including the sale of the Kahlo, “El sueño (La cama),” for $54.7 million, which set the record for any female artist at auction and any Latin American artist at auction. We simply did not see such offerings at Art Basel.
Anecdotal as they may be, reports indicated brisk sales in the middle market at Art Basel Miami Beach this year. One may speculate as to whether the buoyant auction market of November 2025, in which overall totals far surpassed those of equivalent sales in recent seasons, primed the mood for the fair such that private sales were easier to effect. Although the record sale of a $236 million Klimt from the Lauder estate may have very little direct correspondence to the relative volume of six-figure transactions that dealers may make at the fair, it is indeed reasonable to speculate that mood may have been a factor, though shifts in market behavior often owe to a variety of cultural and economic factors, and direct causation can be difficult to trace.
"Icons" at Sotheby's: A private sales story
Sotheby's Icons exhibition, currently on view in New York, is intended as a mini compendium of key auction sales at the house over the decades. And yet, ironically, it is in large part a story about private sales -- and above all, those which brought four masterpieces to the collection of Citadel CEO and mega-collector Ken Griffin, notwithstanding silence in the exhibition wall text about the post-auction sales histories of these paintings.
The first is Basquiat's 1982 Untitled head, which sold to Yusaku Maezawa at Sotheby's in 2017 for $110.5 million, setting an all-time auction record for any American artist (surpassed at Christie’s in 2022 with the $195 million sale of Warhol’s 1964 Shot Sage Blue Marilyn). Maezawa’s $200 million private sale of this Basquiat to Griffin was reported in Artnet News in May 2024, but the story remained publicly uncorroborated until now.
The $200 million price attained for Shot Sage Blue Marilyn was in no small part benchmarked by another private Griffin purchase of a Warhol painting included in “Icons,” namely the closely related Shot Orange Marilyn (1964), originally purchased at Sotheby’s by S.I. Newhouse for $17.3 million in 1988 and much later, in 2017, sold to Griffin for approximately $200 million.
Also in Icons is De Kooning’s Interchange (1955), which sold at Sotheby’s for $20.7 million, but, market-wise, is perhaps best known for its 2015 private purchase by Griffin from music mogul David Geffen for a reported $300 million in a deal reported also to include the $200 million purchase of Pollock’s Number 17A (1948). The $300 million purchase of the De Kooning was the highest known price paid for a work of art in any market, and today, it is still second only to the Salvator Mundi by Leonardo da Vinci (and/or workshop), which fetched $450.3 million at Christie’s, NY in 2017.
The fourth significant Griffin loan to Icons is Jasper Johns’s False Start (1959), which sold for $17 million at Sotheby’s in 1988 and later, in 2006, was sold by Geffen to Griffin for a reported $80 million. It is worth considering what the painting might bring today, nearly 20 years later.
Irrespective of any possible such price growth, these four paintings comprise a total of approximately $780 million in total realized private sales, none of which is mentioned in the exhibition wall text. This is not a criticism; to the contrary, it was a pleasure and a rare opportunity to be able to see these major paintings, among others, assembled together for what may be the only time, but it’s also worth observing that the unspoken epicenter of this exhibition allegedly about auction sales, is indeed something quite apart than that.
Also not to miss in Icons are brilliant paintings by Kahlo, Klimt, Mondrian, Sargent, Still, and others, all looking their best in the Breuer building, itself a masterpiece.
PRMA webinar: Takeaways on art appraisal for insurance
Thank you to Private Risk Management Association (PRMA) for hosting a webinar that I led yesterday, "The Art Market, Appraisals, and Insurance: What Brokers Need to Know Now." The presentation was a 50/50 talk, first a bird's eye view of the current art market, then a "nuts and bolts" discussion about some of the most salient aspects of art appraisals for insurance purposes.
A few takeaways for brokers and underwriters:
1. Appraisers whom you or your insureds engage should be USPAP-complaint, competent in the relevant area(s), and ideally hold membership in one of the major appraisal organizations such as the Appraisers Association of America.
2. USPAP (the only appraisal standards authorized by US Congress) comprise a set of requirements and guidelines designed to ensure impartial, objective, independent appraisals, with certain baselines established for diligence, methodological thoroughness, record keeping, ethical conduct, and reporting.
3. There are different types of value. The same work of art will have a different valuation depending on the *type* of value.
4. For insurance scheduling purposes, your insureds should commission appraisals that assess Retail Replacement Value, which is defined as “the highest amount that would be required to replace a property with another of similar age, quality, origin, appearance, provenance, and condition within a reasonable length of time in an appropriate and relevant market.”
5. There is no net relationship between the types of value, especially between Fair Market Value and Retail Replacement Value. This depends enormously on the type of art in question. For some works, the difference between FMV and RRV may be 20%, and for other works, it may be 10x.
6. There is no set timeline for when to reappraise art. This depends on the type of art. For example, a collection of emerging art should probably be considered for reappraisal for insurance purposes more frequently than a collection of traditional American art.
Comments in ARTnews on Cecily Brown
My comments on this week's auction offerings of Cecily Brown paintings are included in Daniel Cassady's article for ARTnews, "Christie's 21st-Century Evening Sale Totals $123.6 M. and Sets a Few Records" about last night's sale:
Most surprising perhaps was Cecily Brown’s It’s not yesterday anymore, which received three bids before auctioneer Yü-Ge Wang—who took over for Meyer after the Edlis-Neeson lots were complete—pulled the work.
As art adviser and appraiser David Shapiro reminded ARTnews after the sale, Brown’s record was reset on Tuesday evening at Sotheby’s after a 10-minute showdown brought High Society (1997–98) from a starting bid of $4 million to a total of $9.8 million. “Market buoyancy notwithstanding, this example suggests that discernment with respect to quality may be a lesson preserved, at least in the meantime, from the last two years,” Shapiro said of Wednesday evening’s pass on It’s not yesterday anymore.
November 2025: High end of the auction market in New York
When it rains, it pours. After a dry spring season in which no works sold above $50M in the marquee sales, and only two (the Monet and Mondrian) sold above $40M (plus the Canaletto six weeks later), the fall auctions are looking very different, with 9 lots poised to sell in this territory or above.
At Sotheby's, the three Klimt paintings have "estimates on request," respectively, of $150M+ for the portrait, and $70M+ and $80M+ for the two landscapes. The Kahlo is estimated at $40-60M, and the Basquiat at $35-$45M.
Christie's has the Rothko with an "estimate on request" in the region of $50M, the Monet at $40-60M, and the Picasso and the Hockney each estimated in the region of $40M (plus there's an exemplary, potentially record-breaking Canaletto on preview for a Feb. sale in Classic Week).
It's a given that the November Evening Sale totals will appreciably exceed May 2025 totals, and yet, one must be careful not to over-extrapolate larger market trends from such changes given that the high end is often a supply-driven market segment, with sales totals tied largely to circumstance. Many of these consignments are estate property, the timing of which is beyond control.
WEBINAR: The Art Market, Appraisals, and Insurance
Please join me on December 9th at 1pm for a webinar, “The Art Market, Appraisals, and Insurance: What Brokers Need to Know,” hosted by the Private Risk Management Association (PRMA). Registration here.
Quote in Artsy about auction fees
My comments are included in Maxwell Rabb's article published today in Artsy. The article provides a clear and useful summary of the fees associated with buying and selling art at auction.
My quote is about the vendor's commission:
A seller’s commission is a fee charged to the seller by the auction house for its services. A seller’s commission is usually charged at a rate between 5 and 10 percent.
Seller’s commissions vary from lot to lot depending on an array of factors: the value and desirability of the work, the competitiveness of the consignment, the seller’s relationship with the auction house, and the financial structure of the sale (like guarantees or marketing costs). High-value or prestigious lots often receive lower or waived fees to attract them, while lower-value or riskier works carry higher commissions to cover costs.
“They’re more likely to enforce a seller’s commission on a low-value work,” said Shapiro. “For a high-value piece, they’ll do what they can to get it, since they’re probably competing against other houses.”
Some categories—like design, wine, and online-only sales—carry their own rates. Even within the same auction house, London and New York may apply slightly different terms.