My comments are included in today's ARTnews article about the Bazelon et al v. Pace Gallery case regarding a sculpture whose attribution to Louise Nevelson is in question:
And as New York–based adviser David Shapiro, a certified member of the Appraisers Association of America, put it, “An appraiser’s job is to reflect what’s happening in the market. If we think a work wouldn’t be perceived as authentic, that must factor into the value. And if new information emerges, an appraiser can change their mind—so long as it’s disclosed.”
My 2025 Predictions in ARTnews
I am pleased to have my comments included in ARTnews today in the column "Art World Insiders Make Their New Year's Predictions for 2025":
David Shapiro, New York-based art appraiser and advisor: I see four trends from 2024 that may have an outsized impact on 2025. Firstly, the present strength in the equities market could cut both ways. Investors’ increased purchasing power could promote a turn away from the tentative market of 2023 and 2024, even with high interest rates. On the other hand, the strong performance of traditional investment vehicles could cause trepidation among some prospective buyers who had been more eager to collect art when equities markets were not performing well.
Secondly, the total of the three highest auction lots in the second half of 2024 was over double the total of three highest auction lots in the first half of 2024. Supply permitting, we should expect to see the continuation of this more expansive high end of the market. Christie’s record-shattering sale of René Magritte’s L’empire des lumières (1954) for $121.6 million, which was more than $25 million above an already confident estimate with a guarantee, suggests that we can expect to see competition and consequently strong prices in 2025 when truly significant works are offered for sale.
Thirdly, in 2024, extraordinary prices were paid for major non-art objects, shattering all-time records for fossils, movie memorabilia, and sports memorabilia. In 2025, we should continue to see a cross-sector approach to collecting at the highest levels.
And, lastly, Sotheby’s recent reversal of their dramatically overhauled fee structure, to be effected in February 2025 less than a year after implementation, will make the house more competitive again, particularly for day sale consignments. It should also, in turn, promote healthy competition on the part of the other major auction houses to secure consignments that they might have won more easily when Sotheby’s non-negotiable terms were so unfavorable to sellers in the latter part of 2024.
Basquiat, "Portrait of the Artist as a Young Derelict" at Sotheby's London
Basquiat’s Portrait of the Artist as a Young Derelict will be offered in Sotheby’s Evening Sale in London on Tuesday, June 25, estimated at £15-20 million (approx. $19 - 25 million), with a third-party guaruntee.
Although I usually appreciate ARTnews for its comparatively straightforward coverage of the art market (relative to other major publications), Daniel Cassady premised his article about this offering, “Basquiat Triptych to Sell at Sotheby’s London for Half Its Price from Two Years Ago”, on an inaccuracy.
Cassady notes that the painting was offered at Christie’s in 2022 with a $30 million estimate. However, he cites the present estimate as 15-20 million USD (NOT GBP, as it should be). Today’s GBP-to-USD currency conversion is 1.27, so his numbers were off by a lot. Sotheby’s low estimate is nearly two thirds, not half the previous estimate, and it certainly may sell above this guaranteed price.
Most works that are withdrawn or bought-in and then offered for public sale again just two years later would be unlikely to carry low estimates that are much higher than 2/3 of the previous unmet estimate. Not even Basquiat is immune from the strong drive among collectors to buy what's fresh to market — and to expect to pay much less for what is not.
Furthermore, a repeat sale which is guaranteed to fetch nearly two thirds of an overconfident estimate from just two years prior does not necessarily reflect what Cassady refers to as a “dip in prices.”
To express this point, Cassady cites the sale of Basquiat’s Untitled (ELMAR) at Phillips, New York last month for $46.5 million against an estimate (on request) of $60 million — but is this a dip? One must keep in mind that this price was far higher than any other auction price realized for a Basquiat containing Xerox collage.
Also this season, The Italian Version of Popeye has no Pork in his Diet (1982) sold for $32 million at Christie’s NY, slightly above its EOR of $30 million, and Sotheby's eclipsed the record for a Basquiat/ Warhol collaboration with the sale of an untitled 1984 painting for $19.3 million. And Kenny Schachter reported that Ken Griffin bought the Basquiat from Maezawa for $200 million this year, turning a profit of nearly $90M in just seven years.
Jean-Michel Basquiat, Portrait of the Artist as a Young Derelict, 1982, oil, oil stick, and acrylic on wood and metal, 80 x 82 inches